Diamond Industry

For nearly two years, I have written about the decline in natural diamond prices. After rising to dizzying highs in 2021, natural diamond prices have seen a prolonged decline over the past two years. Whilst efforts by large Indian diamond manufacturers in late 2023 to curb the decline through a two month ban on diamond imports worked in the short term, with natural diamonds rising about three percent, they have since plateaued and have reverted back to their pre-moratorium prices. Whilst lower prices are great news for consumers, and in certain situations, good news for members of the trade, it is clear that the current slump is mostly caused by a lack of demand – as evidenced by the slump in sales from De Beers – the world’s largest diamond miner. Like most things in life, this prolonged decline isn’t due to one specific factor, but numerous factors occurring at virtually the same time.

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As the shine begins to tarnish on the lab grown diamond trade due to price falls and consumers getting wiser as to the real value of lab grown diamonds, now is a good time to reflect on the lessons learned from the past three or four years that has transformed the diamond industry.

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As I have written many times before, the price of lab grown diamonds continue their downward trajectory. Being at the end of the first quarter of 2024, now is a good time to reflect on what happened to lab grown prices in the first three months of 2024.

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In January, the BBC aired an episode of its long running show Dragon’s Den, featuring lab grown diamond startup Kimai. This wasn’t first diamond or jewellery business featured on the hit TV show, as in 2008, I wrote about Clive Billings from diamondgeezer.com turning down a 255,000 pound offer in 2008. However, whilst there was nothing spectacular or out of the ordinary about this episode featuring the founders of Kimai, it certainly did ruffle some feathers in the diamond industry.

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Last week, I wrote about how despite dubious claims made by lab grown diamond sellers, that on the whole, lab grown diamonds look better and are a lot cheaper than their natural counterparts. These two factors, combined with a flood of supply bringing prices down, has meant that lab grown diamonds now account for roughly 40 per cent of the engagement ring market. So, with the meteoric rise of lab grown diamonds mean the end of natural diamonds?

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Two of the biggest selling points that lab grown diamond advocates constantly promote are that lab grown diamonds are both “eco-friendly” and are ethical. However, despite these claims being repeated ad nauseum by those spruiking lab grown diamonds over their natural counterparts, these claims remain somewhat dubious – to the point where I really think the industry should do away with them all together and focus on the true benefits of lab grown diamonds.

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As I have documented on this blog before, the price of lab grown diamonds are continuing to fall of a cliff. Whilst data states that lab grown diamonds have halved in price since mid-2022, which was the same time we started selling lab grown diamonds, my experience is that lab grown diamond have decreased by between 60-90% in price – a huge fall in just 18 months!

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Earlier in the year, I wrote about how sanctions on Russian originated diamonds wouldn’t work. Since then, both the World Diamond Council (WDC) and the Belgian government have released plans to identify and ban Russian originated diamonds, with the aim of convincing The Group of Seven Countries (G7) to implement sanctions on Russian originated diamonds, even if they have been cut and polished in another country, such as India.

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Writing about engagement ring trends isn’t anything new – every so often there seems to be an article in magazines such as Vogue that purports to know the new trends for the current year. However, these articles tend to be mostly fictional, based on what the writer assumes is a trend and sometimes backed up by anecdotal evidence from an actual jeweller. Worse yet, are articles from jewellers that are merely puff pieces, written merely as an advertisement to promote their new jewellery line or get rid of old stock. However, engagement ring trends tend not to change from year to year. Moreso, they change over a period, say three to five years, and increasingly, much to the chagrin of jewellers who manufacture jewellery, are increasingly influenced by social media and online vendors.

In 2012, we upgraded our recording systems – going from what was essentially a paper-based system to a system that recorded everything about what we made and what we sold. Using that data, I have come up with five engagement ring trends that have emerged from 2013 to 2023.

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The past 18 months in the diamond and jewellery industry certainly have been a rollercoaster ride. March of 2022 saw natural diamond prices reach dizzying new heights, before coming crashing down again to currently be about ten percent below 2019 prices. At the same time, the prices of lab grown diamonds have come down by 90 or more percent over the last four years due to the market being flooded with supply, thus spurring huge demand for lab grown diamonds. This has prompted diamond tzar Martin Rapaport to label the situation as “serious” and that the threat posed by lab grown diamonds will “significantly impact the generic non-branded B2B diamond markets”. However, the question still remains whether lab grown diamonds will have a lasting impact on the natural diamond market, or will the novelty wear off?

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